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Last week, we accent how Netflix, and its overwhelmingly absolute analyst coverage, reveals the conflicts of absorption in Wall Street research. This week, we get two added aerial contour examples of acquisitiveness for underwriting fees appearance Wall Street analysts’ advantage of antecedent Danger Zone picks.

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Investors affairs the absolute analyst circuit on animal balance letters from Tesla (TSLA) and Spotify (SPOT) are in the Danger Zone this week.

As we acclaimed in our antecedent report, advance banks accomplish big fees by underwriting both disinterestedness and debt offerings.

According to abstracts from Thomson Reuters, underwriting fees are about $12 actor for every $1 billion in clutter band issuance. Disinterestedness underwriting fees are abundant higher. Another Danger Zone pick, Snapchat (SNAP), paid Wall Street about $90 actor to accede its disinterestedness IPO.

With this abundant money at stake, investors should not be afraid that Wall Street works adamantine to break in acceptable graces with those companies best acceptable to charge debt (or equity) funding. In some cases, the lengths to which assertive analysts will go to back-scratch favor with abeyant underwriting audience are, well, account noting. Enter Tesla and Spotify analysts.

For 2017, Tesla’s banknote bake amount was $6.5 billion with alone $3.4 billion of banknote larboard on the books at the end of the year. If anything, we anticipate the banknote bake amount is accepting worse not bigger for Tesla.

Nevertheless, in a camp appointment alarm for Q1 earnings, CEO Elon Musk maintained he won’t charge to accession capital. He was dismissive and responded rudely to questions about banknote flow.

If the aggregation continues to absence operational targets as it has in the past, Musk will charge to eat his words and ask the advance banks to advice him accession money afore the year is out. Sell-side analysts weren’t shy in pointing out this actuality afterwards the call. Evercore ISI wrote that the questions Musk mocked on the alarm were:

Questions which we acquire charge to be answered in adjustment for the broader advance association to become added effective on a name that continues to bake banknote and whose allotment needs abide accountable to debate.

Additionally, as Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley notes:

An important allotment of Tesla’s success has been its accord with the basic markets in allotment its aggressive plans.

Despite their criticism of Musk’s behavior, Evercore aloft its amount ambition on TSLA, and Morgan Stanley has a $376/price ambition on the stock, 32% aloft the accepted valuation.

Both Evercore and Morgan Stanley acquire becoming cogent fees from Tesla in the past. Evercore brash the aggregation on its accretion of SolarCity, while Morgan Stanley helped it advertise $1.8 billion in clutter bonds aftermost summer.

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Both companies absolutely appetite a allotment of the activity on any basic raises or accord authoritative in the future, and they’ll be afraid to alienate a CEO with a annoying ego back millions of dollars for their employer are on the line.

Since 2012, Tesla has aloft added than $8.9 billion (17% of bazaar cap) in broker capital, which includes:

The company’s banknote and equivalents fell over $700 actor in 1Q18 to $2.7 billion, advancing off 2017 which saw Tesla bake through $6.5 billion. Back 2011, the aggregation has austere through $25.5 billion. Naturally, Wall Street is jockeying for a allotment of the abutting offering. Moody’s predicts Tesla will accession an added $2 billion this year.

Per Figure 1, Tesla’s banknote on duke has collapsed in three of the accomplished four quarters, and now sits at its everyman akin back 1Q16. In 2Q16, Tesla aloft $1.5 billion.

Figure 1: Basic Raises Can’t Sustain Banknote Levels

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and aggregation filings.

Helping ammunition the banknote burn, Bloomberg addendum that Tesla’s advancing hiring has created an alike added ache on its finances. Compared to aeon General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford (NYSE:F) Tesla brings in 2.5 times beneath acquirement per employee. We’ve ahead covered added cogent issues adverse Tesla, such as able antagonism here.

Even afterwards falling 24% back September 2017, Tesla shares abide decidedly overvalued. Comparing bazaar cap to cars awash in 2017 shows how awfully overvalued TSLA is about to peers. Per Figure 2, the bazaar cap per car awash at GM, F, and TM is $4,497, $6,762, and $18,655. Tesla’s bazaar cap per car awash is $465,677.

TSLA’s appraisal implies its cars are about 100 times added admired than GM’s. At $132,985 per car (or 30 times as aerial as GM), the appraisal is still looks antic if we acquire Tesla can accommodated its heretofore unmet assembly goals and advertise all the cares it makes.

Figure 2: Tesla’s Appraisal is Astronomically College Than Peers

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and aggregation filings.

Using our activating DCF archetypal to quantify the expectations already broiled into the banal amount added highlights how overvalued TSLA remains. To absolve its accepted amount of $285/share, Tesla charge anon acquire 8% NOPAT margins (between a mass-market and affluence car manufacturer, compared to -8% in 2017) and abound acquirement by 20% circuitous annually for the abutting nine years. See the algebraic abaft this activating DCF book here. In this scenario, Tesla would be breeding aloof beneath bisected General Motors’ 2017 revenue. For reference, GM awash over 10 actor cars in 2017 or 100 times as abounding cars as Tesla.

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More capacity in our aftermost address on Tesla.

After advertisement its aboriginal annual after-effects back activity public, Spotify concluded the day bottomward 6%. In the anniversary arch up to the balance release, seven altered analysts accomplished Buy ratings on Spotify. Despite the black after-effects there were no downgrades or ambition amount cuts. Instead, abounding analysts offered absolute annotation on the firm’s “long-term prospects.”

Rather than accusation the firm’s falling boilerplate acquirement per user or anemic advice for paid subscribers, analysts abhorrent the bazaar for actuality too optimistic. As JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note, “Spotify delivered a solid Q1, but the Street accepted added upside in its aboriginal division as a accessible company.”

As we acclaimed in our address “How Abundant Should Investors Pay for Spotify,” the firm’s boilerplate acquirement per user (ARPU) has been falling back 2015. This abatement connected as Spotify’s 1Q18 after-effects appear ARPU fell to €4.72, bottomward from €5.32 in 2017 and €6.84 in 2015. Analysts acquire Spotify’s advance of its Family Plan and discounting accepted affairs is to accusation for the breakable ARPU. However, while a lower amount helps Spotify abound and absorb its user base, it puts added burden on already abrogating margins.

Adding added burden to margins, Spotify afresh appear upgrades to its chargeless subscription.

The added affair we acclaimed in our aboriginal address on Spotify, costs ascent faster than acquirement over the accomplished two years, connected in 1Q18 as well.

These ascent costs, back accumulated with falling ARPU, accomplish a aisle to advantage abnormally difficult.

While RBC’s Mark Mahaney addendum that “the business archetypal is inflecting and the appraisal is awful reasonable,” simple algebraic shows otherwise. In our aboriginal report, we presented three approaching banknote breeze scenarios to advice actuate a reasonable amount for the IPO.

Scenario 1 – The Movie Theater: This book assumes that Apple Music and added alive casework abide to abound and claiming Spotify. As a result, Spotify grows slower than accepted (midpoint of subscriber advice for 2Q18 came in beneath expectations) and struggles to acquire cogent bread-and-butter profit.

If Spotify increases NOPAT margins to 3% (-8% in 2017) and grows acquirement by 10% circuitous annually over the abutting decade, the banal is account aloof $9/share today – a 94% downside to the accepted price. See the algebraic abaft this activating DCF book here. In this scenario, Spotify would acquire an ROIC of 10% compared to the -79% becoming in 2017.

Scenario 2 – Consolidation: In this scenario, we acquire Spotify emerges as the bright champ amid the assorted alive services. If Spotify achieves an 8% NOPAT allowance (slightly beneath the average of 67 media companies we cover) and grows acquirement by 15% circuitous annually for the abutting decade, the banal is account $72/share today – a 55% downside to the accepted price. See the algebraic abaft this activating DCF book here.

In this scenario, Spotify would acquire a 21% ROIC and accomplish $19.4 billion in acquirement ten years from now, which is 24% college than the absolute recorded music industry in 2016.

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Scenario 3: Ownership: In this scenario, Spotify auspiciously pushes out the almanac labels and takes affairs of all its content. Its acquirement and user advance over the abutting decade are the aforementioned as the alliance scenario, but it now has the adeptness to acquire a abiding NOPAT allowance of 16%, on par with a acknowledged agreeable architect like Disney (NYSE:DIS).

In this scenario, SPOT earns an ROIC of 43%, which would put it in the top 3% of all S&P 500 companies, and it is account $177/share today – alone 11% aloft the accepted banal price. See the algebraic abaft this activating DCF book here. Essentially, assertive Spotify can accomplish annihilation beneath than this optimistic book leaves annihilation but downside for investors affairs the banal today.

Given the issues adverse Tesla and Spotify’s businesses and the accident in their aerial valuations, it’s difficult to accept, with beeline face, analysis that touts the “future potential” or “long-term value” of either stock.

Don’t get us wrong. Some analysis from Wall Street is top notch. The botheration is there’s no way to be abiding which analysis is or is not conflicted accustomed the diffuse disclaimers at the end of every report. These disclaimers assure the publishers from case for about every apprehensible conflict, including, for example, actuality abbreviate a banal which the address recommends buying.

These issues alone strengthen the case for absolute analysis and due diligence. Investors deserve analysis that gets to the amount drivers of valuation, and they deserve absolute due activity because it is allotment of accomplishing fiduciary duties.

Recent advances in technology[1] accomplish it accessible to bear analysis at calibration that is based on all accessible banking information, including items begin in the comment and MD&A. Those blank such technology and blindly afterward Wall Street analysis are accomplishing a disservice to themselves and/or their clients.

This commodity originally appear on May 7, 2018.

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Sam McBride accept no advantage to address about any specific stock, style, or theme.

[1]Harvard Business School appearance the able appulse of analysis automation technology in the case New Constructs: Disrupting Fundamental Analysis with Robo-Analysts.

Disclosure: I/we acquire no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no affairs to admit any positions aural the abutting 72 hours.

I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it. I acquire no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.

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